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False positive fraud alert

number25 pts

An antifraud model flags orders. We know:

  • 1% of orders are actually fraudulent.
  • The model flags 95% of fraudulent orders (sensitivity).
  • The model mistakenly flags 5% of honest orders (false positives).

An order was flagged. What is the probability (in %) that it is actually fraudulent? Round to one decimal place.

%

Both a decimal point and a decimal comma are accepted.